Last March 2nd, at the United Nations General Assembly, during the adoption of a resolution deploring the aggression committed by Russia against Ukraine, 24 African countries preferred not to condemn Russia by abstaining from voting for or against the Russian aggression. According to diplomatic experts, this choice is explained by the strong influence that Russia exerts today in Africa, notably through the deployment of military forces on several fronts trying to contain the jihadist threats. However, African countries import massively agricultural products, especially wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
The problem
But, the biggest issue now is the shipping lines serve no longer Russian ports such as (Novorossiysk, Kaliningrad, St.Petersburg) and that the Ukrainian ports are also not served anymore.
Indeed, Africa produces 23 million tons of wheat each year against 40 million tons imported. At a time when the Russian invasion is weakening agricultural markets with the volatility of a ton of wheat reaching 400 Euros, African supply chains are once again weakened after the covid-19 health crisis. For this reason, Russian and Ukrainian wheat, which represents a total of 30% of the world’s wheat, is exported to Africa for over 50%.
While crises of any kind seem to affect most often the African sub-Saharan supply chains, this time those of North Africa are in more difficulty. This is due to the strong dependence of these countries on Russian and Ukrainian agricultural products. This is the example of Egypt, which in 2021 bought thirteen million tons of wheat from abroad, 85% of which came from Russia and Ukraine. In Cairo, the shortage of bread is already announced even if the country still has 4 months of wheat stock.
The same scenario in Algeria has also turned to the import of Russian and Ukrainian wheat after having turned its back on French wheat on which the country previously depended. In Morocco and Tunisia, local production was expected to be able to manage crises of this magnitude, but a severe period of drought, as well as a serious agricultural performance, seem to thwart the forecasts for these two countries respectively.
Sub-Saharan Africa, which also imports Russian wheat, particularly Nigeria, which ranks first with 2113 tons during the 2020-2021 crop year, will certainly be impacted by the war in Ukraine. This is the example of Burkina Faso, which has already doubled its purchases in the first half of the current crop year compared to the previous year. In Senegal, the price of bread has risen in recent months from 150 XOF to 175 XOF as a visible consequence of the unavailability of wheat.
A hopeful conclusion in the long term yet alarming in the short
Even though, most African countries have declared that they have 5 to 6 months of wheat reserves, specialists from the World Food Program (WFP) fear that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will cause a famine in Africa. As for the African supply chains, they can be reorganized to turn to European countries, especially France and Germany, which produce more than they consume.
We could witness a better scenario in the years to come if donors innovate their agricultural development policies for this continent which has 60% of the world’s land reserves, arable land that would be used for intensive and self-sufficient agricultural production for not only Africans but also other continents. The consequence of this policy would simply be a reorganization of intra-African supply chains.
For further reference about this important topic: Read here
